Blog, Strategies

Monthly Update: Top Picks Momentum

Posted by Erik Martin Hansén

Aktieportföljen Top Picks Momentum bygger på en variant av vår strategi Pure Momentum. Strategin identifierar lågvolatila aktier i tydliga uppåtgående trender, med en medellångsiktig tillbakablicksperiod. Grundantagandet är att dessa trender ofta varar längre än vad många förväntar sig.

A characteristic of momentum strategies is that a few big winners often account for a large portion of the total return. However, momentum is difficult for many to follow in practice, and requires clear and structured rules to be able to take advantage of its potential.

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Information

  • Direction: Long-only (no short positions)
  • Strategic direction: Volatility-adjusted price momentum
  • Investment universe: Nordic
  • Portfolio weights: Volatility-adjusted weights
  • Rebalancing frequency: Monthly

Development

Hittills under 2025 har Top Picks Momentum stigit med 19 %, att jämföra med 14,5 % för XACT Sverige och 2,2 % för XACT Norden.

Sedan i somras har portföljen utvecklats sidledes och tyngts av tidigare vinnare som tappat momentum. En momentumbaserad strategi kommer periodvis underprestera mot index. Momentum går i cykler, och perioder med svagare utveckling är en naturlig del av strategins profil.

Lundin Gold, NORBIT, och Protector Forsikring ASA, har varit största bidragsviare hittills under 2025. Största sänken har varit Zenith Energy, Surgical Science and AF Gruppen.

Utveckling månad (%)

År Jan Feb Mar Apr Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Total
2023 8,8 1,3 1,4 -0,4 -0,6 2,1 -2,1 -4,4 -2,7 -0,2 0,5 3,7 7,0
2024 5,0 3,6 5,1 -0,7 7,6 -0,3 0,8 -2,7 0,4 -0,2 -0,1 0,7 20,4
2025 3,6 2,6 -4,0 5,1 5,5 3,7 2,0 -0,4 1,9 -0,2 -1,1 -0,8 19,0

Utvecklingen är endast vägledande och beror på exekvering, slippage och courtage.

Innehav och portföljvikter

Innehav och portföljvikter i våra faktorbaserade aktiestrategier ingår i premiumpaketet och finns tillgängliga på sidan Model portfolios.

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More information:

A factor-based equity strategy systematically invests in stocks that exhibit certain characteristics – called factors – that have historically been associated with outperformance. Common examples include value, momentum, quality and low volatility.

The strategies are based on objective rules and data-driven analysis, not subjective judgments or gut feelings. This makes decision-making more consistent and less sensitive to market fluctuations. The portfolios are rebalanced regularly, often monthly, to adhere to the factors on which the strategy is based.

It is important to understand that factor strategies still invest in stocks and therefore have a high correlation with the stock market. They can therefore be expected to decline in value during broad market declines. Another risk is that factors can underperform for longer periods, which requires patience and discipline from the investor. The biggest risk is often not the model itself, but rather abandoning the strategy when things go wrong.

The Value & Momentum strategy combines two well-documented factors: low valuation and strong price momentum. The aim is to find stocks that are both fundamentally attractive and show a positive trend. The combination makes it possible to avoid so-called value traps – stocks that look cheap but continue to lose value.

Unlike a pure momentum strategy, which focuses solely on price gains and is often driven by a few big winners, Value & Momentum tends to provide a more even distribution of gains and losses. It reduces the reliance on individual extreme movements. At the same time, the strategy may miss some highly valued growth stocks with strong momentum that do not pass the value filter. Pure momentum often works best in strong bull markets with clear trends, while the combination of value and momentum tends to be more robust over time and in different market environments.

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Posted by Erik Martin Hansén
After studying at Uppsala University, Erik Hansén has worked in the financial industry since 2007 at several brokerage firms and traded privately. In his role as an analyst, Erik has written highly regarded market letters.

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