Blog, Strategies

Monthly Update: Volatility & Quality

Posted by Erik Martin Hansén

Volatilitet & Kvalitet är en faktorbaserad aktieportfölj som ger exponering mot kvalitetsbolag med låg volatilitet och etablerade upptrender. Urvalet baseras på både fundamenta och prisdata. Portföljen rebalanseras månadsvis med målet att uppnå en högre riskjusterad avkastning än aktiemarknaden.

Alla våra faktorbaserade strategier är baserade på koncept där det finns beteendevetenskapliga förklaringar till varför de har förutsättningar till att överprestera. Dessa strategier hjälper oss att agera rationellt. Genom att följa en systematisk strategi undviker vi exempelvis misstaget att sälja vinnande positioner för tidigt.

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Information

  • Direction: Long-only (no short positions)
  • Strategic direction: Trend following with fundamental filters
  • Investment universe: Norden & USA
  • Portfolio weights: Likaviktat (kapital/antal positioner)
  • Rebalancing frequency: Monthly
Information inför 2026
Inför 2026 gör vi några mindre justeringar i universet för våra tre aktieportföljer. Syftet är att öka differentieringen mellan portföljerna och undvika många överlappande innehav. Top Picks Momentum kommer att fokusera på svenska bolag. Värde & Momentum kommer att investera i Norden. Volatilitet & USA kommer att investera i amerikanska bolag. Ändringarna kommer att genomföras successivt under de kommande månaderna i samband med våra ordinarie månadsuppdateringar.

Development

Hittills under 2025 har modellportföljen stigit med 12,5 %, med en maximal nedgång på 20 % under börsfallet under våren. Bästa bidragsvigare under året har varit Lundin Gold, Celestica och Howmet Aerospace. Största sänken har varit Netflix, Spotify och AAK.

Givet utvecklingen för USA och Norden är utveckling i linje med förväntningarna. Eftersom portföljen består av 50 % USA och 50 % Norden blir en rättvis jämförelse ett index med 50 % USA och 50 % Norden. Detta jämförelseindex har under samma period fallit med 2,0 % (i SEK).

Utveckling månad (%)*
År Jan Feb Mar Apr Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Total
2023       1,2 3,0 1,0 0,8 -0,7 -1,8 1,2 -2,2 2,2 4,6
2024 5,6 3,4 5,7 3,0 6,6 0,2 3,3 0,1 -0,2 -3,5 1,3 0,9 29,1
2025 4,6 -0,9 -9,8 3,3 7,6 4,1 1,9 -0,9 4,4 2,2 -1,5 -2,0 12,5

*Utvecklingen är endast vägledande och beror på exekvering, slippage och courtage.

Utveckling och drawdown, Year-to-Date

Förändringar innehav

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More information:

A factor-based equity strategy systematically invests in stocks that exhibit certain characteristics – called factors – that have historically been associated with outperformance. Common examples include value, momentum, quality and low volatility.

The strategies are based on objective rules and data-driven analysis, not subjective judgments or gut feelings. This makes decision-making more consistent and less sensitive to market fluctuations. The portfolios are rebalanced regularly, often monthly, to adhere to the factors on which the strategy is based.

It is important to understand that factor strategies still invest in stocks and therefore have a high correlation with the stock market. They can therefore be expected to decline in value during broad market declines. Another risk is that factors can underperform for longer periods, which requires patience and discipline from the investor. The biggest risk is often not the model itself, but rather abandoning the strategy when things go wrong.

The Value & Momentum strategy combines two well-documented factors: low valuation and strong price momentum. The aim is to find stocks that are both fundamentally attractive and show a positive trend. The combination makes it possible to avoid so-called value traps – stocks that look cheap but continue to lose value.

Unlike a pure momentum strategy, which focuses solely on price gains and is often driven by a few big winners, Value & Momentum tends to provide a more even distribution of gains and losses. It reduces the reliance on individual extreme movements. At the same time, the strategy may miss some highly valued growth stocks with strong momentum that do not pass the value filter. Pure momentum often works best in strong bull markets with clear trends, while the combination of value and momentum tends to be more robust over time and in different market environments.

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The value of investments may fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, company-specific factors and global economic events. It is important that you carefully consider your financial situation and your ability to bear potential losses before investing. The Service does not provide personal investment advice and recommends that you seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.

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Posted by Erik Martin Hansén
After studying at Uppsala University, Erik Hansén has worked in the financial industry since 2007 at several brokerage firms and traded privately. In his role as an analyst, Erik has written highly regarded market letters.

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