Blog, Strategies

Uppdatering: Värde & Momentum

Posted by Erik Martin Hansén

Värde & Momentum är en strategi som syftar till att identifiera bolag med god fundamental grund och positivt marknadsbeteende. Portföljvikter justeras för volatilitet och ändringar görs en gång i månaden. Med tålamod, disciplin och en systematisk positionshantering har vi goda förutsättningar till att överprestera över tid. 

Våra faktorbaserade aktiestrategier ingår i premiumpaketet. På sidan modellportföljer redovisas innehaven och portföljvikterna. Click here för att läsa mer om våra strategier på hemsidan.

Information

  • Direction: Long only (no short positions)
  • Strategic direction: Attraktiva värderingar (value) och starkt prismomentum (momentum).
  • Investment universe: Primärt svenska aktier. Urvalet kan även inkludera nordiska bolag.
  • Portfolio weights: Volatilitetsjusterat (alla innehav får vara med och bidra lika mycket)
  • Rebalancing frequency: Monthly

Development

Sedan starten 2023 har Värde & Momentum-portföljen stigit med 61,8 %, att jämföra med Stockholmsbörsen (XACT Sverige) som ökat med 26,8 %. Sharpekvoten har legat på 2,3 jämfört med aktiemarknadens 0,6, och portföljens beta och korrelation har varit 0,47 respektive 0,67.

Med hjälp av momentum har strategin undvikt så kallade ”värdefällor” – lågt värderade aktier som fortsätter att falla. Den typen av innehav kan vara mentalt svåra att släppa om man investerar diskretionärt utan ett systematiskt tillvägagångssätt.

Hittills under 2025 har Värde & Momentum-portföljen stigit med 7,9 %, med stöd av den senaste månadens återhämtning i risksentimentet. Utvecklingen har varit något bättre än Stockholmsbörsen och betyligt mycket bättre än index över Norden som tyngts av Novo Nordisk.

De största positiva bidragsgivarna under 2025 har varit B2 Impact, Betsson och Clas Ohlson, medan Enea, Boliden och Lucara Diamond har belastat portföljen mest negativt.

År Jan Feb Mar Apr Maj Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Dec Total
2023         -0.7 4.7 3.3 -1.7 0.5 1.1 -0.5 3.6 10.5
2024 4.2 4.4 6.7 3.1 6.0 -2.0 3.4 -0.4 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.6 35.7
2025 3.8 4.0 -5.2 0.3 5.0               7.9

Utvecklingen är endast vägledande och beror på exekvering, slippage och courtage. 

Innehav och portföljvikter


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ℹ️ FAKTORBASERADE STRATEGIER OCH VÄRDE & MOMENTUM

A factor-based equity strategy systematically invests in stocks that exhibit certain characteristics – called factors – that have historically been associated with outperformance. Common examples include value, momentum, quality and low volatility.

The strategies are based on objective rules and data-driven analysis, not subjective judgments or gut feelings. This makes decision-making more consistent and less sensitive to market fluctuations. The portfolios are rebalanced regularly, often monthly, to adhere to the factors on which the strategy is based.

It is important to understand that factor strategies still invest in stocks and therefore have a high correlation with the stock market. They can therefore be expected to decline in value during broad market declines. Another risk is that factors can underperform for longer periods, which requires patience and discipline from the investor. The biggest risk is often not the model itself, but rather abandoning the strategy when things go wrong.

The Value & Momentum strategy combines two well-documented factors: low valuation and strong price momentum. The aim is to find stocks that are both fundamentally attractive and show a positive trend. The combination makes it possible to avoid so-called value traps – stocks that look cheap but continue to lose value.

Unlike a pure momentum strategy, which focuses solely on price gains and is often driven by a few big winners, Value & Momentum tends to provide a more even distribution of gains and losses. It reduces the reliance on individual extreme movements. At the same time, the strategy may miss some highly valued growth stocks with strong momentum that do not pass the value filter. Pure momentum often works best in strong bull markets with clear trends, while the combination of value and momentum tends to be more robust over time and in different market environments.

⚠️ RISKVARNING

Investing in financial markets always involves risk. Historical performance is no guarantee of future results, and there is a possibility that you may lose all or part of your invested capital. Our analyses and indicators are based on historical data and statistical models, but these models cannot predict future market movements with complete certainty.

The value of investments may fluctuate significantly due to market conditions, company-specific factors and global economic events. It is important that you carefully consider your financial situation and your ability to bear potential losses before investing. The Service does not provide personal investment advice and recommends that you seek independent financial advice before making any investment decisions.

NeuroQuant employees may own or trade securities mentioned in analyses or based on indicators used in our services. This may potentially create conflicts of interest, but we strive for full transparency and professional integrity in all our activities. Following our analyses and indicators involves increased risk if the market moves in an unpredictable manner. You should only invest money that you are prepared to lose and understand that past performance, analyses or models provided through the service do not guarantee future results.

Posted by Erik Martin Hansén
After studying at Uppsala University, Erik Hansén has worked in the financial industry since 2007 at several brokerage firms and traded privately. In his role as an analyst, Erik has written highly regarded market letters.

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